Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -300 NU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +4 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -5.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -4.2 (-0.2) | 138.6 (-10.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.6 (-1.6) | 136.2 (-8.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.1 (-1.1) | 136.5 (-8.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -5.4 (-1.4) | 136.9 (-8.9) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ILL 84 – 44 NU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ILL 79 – 68 NU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ILL 83 – 74 NU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NU 70 – 66 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | NU 96 – 91 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#23) | 10.9 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#39) | 2.20 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#37) | 2.45 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#62) | 0.573 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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