Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -163 STMN +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -2.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -1.0 (+8.0) | 149.2 (-12.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -2.1 (+6.9) | 148.0 (-11.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -1.1 (+7.9) | 147.7 (-10.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -0.8 (+8.2) | 149.9 (-12.9) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STMN 84 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NDSU 68 – 65 STMN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | STMN 79 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | STMN 89 – 85 NDSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STMN 68 – 58 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#215) | -0.8 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#235) | 0.08 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#232) | -0.25 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#202) | 0.504 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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