Betting Lines
| Spread | USI -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USI -200 TNTC +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +3 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | USI -6.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -4.2 (-7.2) | 154.5 (+6.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -5.5 (-8.5) | 151.3 (+9.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -4.1 (-7.1) | 152.6 (+8.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USI -3.8 (-6.8) | 153.2 (+7.8) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | TNTC 82 – 74 USI |
| Jan 16, 2026 | USI 71 – 54 TNTC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TNTC 78 – 65 USI |
| Jan 3, 2025 | TNTC 68 – 64 USI |
| Feb 2, 2024 | USI 74 – 71 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#262) | -7.8 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#263) | -1.37 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#264) | -1.71 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#258) | 0.443 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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