Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | COFC -450 TOW +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -11.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -12.0 (-4.0) | 150.0 (+8.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -8.8 (-0.8) | 149.9 (+8.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -12.3 (-4.3) | 150.6 (+7.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -11.3 (-3.3) | 152.0 (+6.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TOW 81 – 56 COFC |
| Jan 16, 2026 | TOW 61 – 52 COFC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | COFC 77 – 69 TOW |
| Mar 11, 2024 | COFC 61 – 56 TOW |
| Feb 24, 2024 | COFC 72 – 56 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 17-1 | 10-2 |
| Away | 11-2 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#60) | 1.1 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#34) | 0.28 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#40) | 0.34 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#39) | 0.511 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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