Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -150 STO +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +10 | 98 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -4.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -2.6 (+7.4) | 128.8 (-30.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -3.6 (+6.4) | 124.1 (-26.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -1.4 (+8.6) | 127.5 (-29.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -2.2 (+7.8) | 128.3 (-30.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | WAG 68 – 57 STO |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STO 69 – 60 WAG |
| Feb 21, 2025 | WAG 63 – 57 STO |
| Jan 31, 2025 | STO 73 – 61 WAG |
| Feb 3, 2024 | STO 71 – 61 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.3 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#314) | -9.4 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#303) | -1.37 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#313) | -1.95 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#279) | 0.474 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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