Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | LIN +180 SEMO -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIN +3 | 207 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -2.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+60.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -2.5 (+5.5) | 147.7 (+59.3) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -1.8 (+4.8) | 143.4 (+63.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -2.5 (+5.5) | 145.2 (+61.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -2.5 (+5.5) | 146.8 (+60.2) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | SEMO 68 – 66 LIN |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SEMO 73 – 61 LIN |
| Jan 16, 2026 | LIN 88 – 76 SEMO |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SEMO 74 – 58 LIN |
| Jan 24, 2025 | LIN 72 – 68 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIN | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#340) | -5.1 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#347) | -0.80 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#340) | -1.16 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#347) | 0.482 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIN | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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