Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | NCCU -225 HOW +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -8.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -5.7 (+2.3) | 143.0 (-15.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -5.8 (+2.2) | 142.3 (-14.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -6.5 (+1.5) | 145.0 (-17.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -6.1 (+1.9) | 146.0 (-18.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HOW 70 – 63 NCCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HOW 100 – 67 NCCU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HOW 83 – 69 NCCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NCCU 72 – 68 HOW |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HOW 82 – 78 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#174) | -4.7 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#204) | -0.11 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#185) | -0.50 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#169) | 0.498 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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