Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | TXST +110 USM -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +10 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -4.3 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -4.1 (-5.9) | 139.2 (+8.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -1.0 (-9.0) | 137.5 (+10.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -3.6 (-6.4) | 138.8 (+9.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -4.1 (-5.9) | 139.7 (+8.3) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USM 81 – 77 TXST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXST 74 – 67 USM |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USM 80 – 70 TXST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXST 85 – 82 USM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | USM 92 – 88 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 4-10 | 15-0 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 67.5 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#216) | 5.5 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#222) | 1.48 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#230) | 1.65 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#229) | 0.592 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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