Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | HARV -115 PRIN -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +2 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | HARV -1.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -0.1 (-2.1) | 141.4 (-27.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -0.2 (-1.8) | 139.7 (-25.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -0.4 (-2.4) | 141.0 (-27.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -0.2 (-2.2) | 141.7 (-27.7) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HARV 58 – 56 PRIN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HARV 87 – 80 PRIN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PRIN 76 – 71 HARV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | PRIN 68 – 64 HARV |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PRIN 66 – 53 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-14 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 10-4 |
| Home | 5-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#145) | 3.9 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#192) | 0.34 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#178) | 0.54 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#162) | 0.531 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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