Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU +188 UNCG -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +1 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -4.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -4.5 (+5.5) | 138.5 (-13.5) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -3.7 (+4.7) | 137.8 (-12.8) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -4.4 (+5.4) | 138.0 (-13.0) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -4.4 (+5.4) | 140.4 (-15.4) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 75 UNCG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETSU 86 – 60 UNCG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 49 UNCG |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 65 ETSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 73 – 62 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-9 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#237) | 3.7 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#305) | 0.48 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#286) | 0.61 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#303) | 0.553 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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