Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -163 USI +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +12 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -3.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -3.3 (-15.3) | 157.1 (+16.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -1.1 (-13.1) | 154.5 (+19.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -3.2 (-15.2) | 155.2 (+18.8) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -3.5 (-15.5) | 157.0 (+17.0) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | TNST 73 – 71 USI |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TNST 73 – 67 USI |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TNST 74 – 69 USI |
| Dec 20, 2024 | USI 77 – 75 TNST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TNST 78 – 64 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#270) | -5.6 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#262) | -1.09 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#276) | -1.36 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#266) | 0.453 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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