Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -200 TEX +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -1.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -3.9 (+5.1) | 151.6 (+1.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -3.1 (+5.9) | 153.3 (-0.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -2.3 (+6.7) | 155.2 (-2.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -2.6 (+6.4) | 155.5 (-2.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2024 | BAY 93 – 85 TEX |
| Jan 20, 2024 | TEX 75 – 73 BAY |
| Jan 31, 2023 | TEX 76 – 71 BAY |
| Mar 1, 2022 | BAY 68 – 61 TEX |
| Feb 12, 2022 | BAY 80 – 63 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 17-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#12) | 17.1 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#8) | 2.96 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#8) | 3.49 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#12) | 0.617 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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