Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | GASO -138 APP +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | GASO -1.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -0.7 (+8.3) | 134.6 (+2.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -0.0 (+9.0) | 133.3 (+3.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -1.4 (+7.6) | 132.1 (+4.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -0.6 (+8.4) | 134.0 (+3.0) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | APP 89 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 12, 2026 | APP 81 – 65 GASO |
| Feb 26, 2025 | GASO 61 – 59 APP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | APP 79 – 74 GASO |
| Mar 9, 2024 | APP 85 – 80 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#208) | -0.2 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#217) | -0.23 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#223) | -0.14 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#206) | 0.493 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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