Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | UGA +130 MIZ -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +22 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | MIZ -3.7 (-18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -3.5 (-18.5) | 152.6 (-4.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -2.0 (-20.0) | 154.0 (-6.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -2.4 (-19.6) | 154.7 (-6.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -2.8 (-19.2) | 153.2 (-5.2) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | UGA 74 – 72 MIZ |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MIZ 87 – 74 UGA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UGA 64 – 59 MIZ |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UGA 75 – 68 MIZ |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MIZ 79 – 69 UGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 16-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#148) | 8.5 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#97) | 2.15 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#92) | 2.32 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#138) | 0.578 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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