Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | OAK +105 NKU -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +9 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | NKU -1.9 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -2.9 (-6.1) | 138.2 (+8.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -2.2 (-6.8) | 139.0 (+8.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -3.1 (-5.9) | 137.0 (+10.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -2.5 (-6.5) | 139.3 (+7.7) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | NKU 85 – 84 OAK |
| Feb 1, 2026 | OAK 76 – 65 NKU |
| Dec 18, 2025 | OAK 82 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NKU 84 – 75 OAK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OAK 68 – 53 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#283) | -0.9 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#250) | -0.07 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#260) | 0.03 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#225) | 0.520 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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