Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UL -188 USA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UL -4.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -4.8 (+5.2) | 145.7 (-7.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -3.6 (+6.4) | 143.1 (-5.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -2.7 (+7.3) | 144.6 (-6.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -2.8 (+7.2) | 145.8 (-7.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UL 59 – 56 USA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USA 63 – 58 UL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | USA 65 – 42 UL |
| Feb 2, 2025 | USA 62 – 58 UL |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UL 80 – 60 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#103) | 3.8 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#80) | -0.07 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#75) | 0.15 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#50) | 0.501 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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