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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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84–33 on winners spread MAE 8.6 117 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Xavier @ Seton Hall -0.7 142.1 50% 82–60 ✓
Siena @ Rider +2.5 138.0 62% 66–69 ✓
Fairfield @ Niagara +1.8 128.5 57% 68–76 ✓
Iona @ Mount St. Mary's -11.5 138.1 15% 80–68 ✓
Marist @ Manhattan +2.1 133.3 60% 81–58 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Canisius +4.2 135.5 66% 53–66 ✓
Richmond @ VCU +10.7 134.9 84% 58–73 ✓
Marshall @ Old Dominion -2.4 146.8 38% 67–71 ✗
App State @ Georgia Southern +1.4 132.1 56% 64–73 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Florida +3.1 143.7 67% 67–79 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville +0.9 131.7 55% 56–52 ✗
Queens University @ Liberty +13.5 150.1 88% 53–73 ✓
Austin Peay @ Florida Gulf Coast +10.4 137.3 86% 71–89 ✓
Lipscomb @ Stetson +3.8 150.3 71% 98–91 ✗
Jacksonville State @ North Alabama +3.3 145.5 69% 92–83 ✗
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe +3.1 132.1 59% 64–61 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Troy +10.9 146.0 87% 74–95 ✓
Southern Miss @ Texas State -3.6 138.8 30% 79–69 ✓
Georgia State @ James Madison +12.9 145.5 87% 69–90 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Central Arkansas -8.1 155.6 18% 72–56 ✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State +5.9 142.2 73% 71–84 ✓
Seattle U @ Grand Canyon +5.5 140.1 71% 65–54 ✗
South Alabama @ Louisiana +2.7 144.6 66% 64–74 ✓
Air Force @ UNLV +8.5 142.1 79% 53–54 ✓
Nevada @ Fresno State -5.8 129.6 25% 60–56 ✓
UConn @ St. John's -5.9 151.0 26% 95–86 ✓
Creighton @ Villanova -1.6 136.5 42% 67–79 ✗
Oklahoma @ Iowa State +7.0 129.8 75% 61–50 ✗
TCU @ Texas Tech +2.0 142.8 59% 83–82 ✗
Clemson @ NC State +7.0 150.3 78% 96–71 ✗
Michigan State @ Iowa +2.7 145.8 63% 106–112 ✓
Stony Brook @ Charleston +17.8 144.2 91% 52–92 ✓
Lehigh @ Boston University +2.6 136.7 65% 56–59 ✓
Missouri @ Georgia -2.0 154.0 41% 85–63 ✓
Ohio @ Miami (OH) -6.0 151.4 25% 68–85 ✗
Merrimack @ Long Island University -8.5 127.8 19% 80–59 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Central Connecticut +1.4 143.6 57% 69–67 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Fairleigh Dickinson +5.7 144.7 71% 69–86 ✓
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy +2.5 160.3 65% 82–71 ✗
Arkansas @ Alabama +10.3 158.4 83% 83–86 ✓
Arizona State @ Arizona +11.7 153.0 85% 89–88 ✗
Texas @ Baylor +3.1 153.3 63% 72–81 ✓
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State +1.6 142.6 55% 73–68 ✗
Lafayette @ Bucknell +0.7 130.2 49% 65–75 ✓
Army @ Holy Cross -2.2 145.0 39% 80–65 ✓
Louisville @ Georgia Tech +7.9 141.2 79% 67–83 ✓
Maine @ Binghamton +0.7 138.8 55% 71–67 ✗
Princeton @ Harvard +0.4 141.0 53% 58–56 ✗
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania +11.2 147.7 86% 79–89 ✓
Brown @ Columbia -7.9 142.2 24% 84–73 ✓
UTEP @ Florida Atlantic +15.1 144.7 88% 49–75 ✓
High Point @ Winthrop +4.4 154.9 69% 78–84 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate +0.4 134.2 51% 69–75 ✓
Campbell @ Radford +4.3 135.7 67% 65–67 ✓
Furman @ Samford +1.4 153.8 57% 93–79 ✗
The Citadel @ Mercer +6.6 136.2 74% 50–72 ✓
Buffalo @ Toledo +11.4 160.5 85% 71–101 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan -1.9 137.7 45% 84–80 ✓
Western Illinois @ North Dakota State +5.9 144.8 73% 69–71 ✓
St. Thomas @ North Dakota -1.6 147.6 44% 74–82 ✗
Hampton @ North Carolina A&T +5.7 147.3 70% 72–73 ✓
Monmouth @ William & Mary +6.7 138.2 75% 62–74 ✓
Northeastern @ Hofstra +15.3 138.2 89% 52–84 ✓
Rhode Island @ Fordham +8.4 139.8 82% 71–74 ✓
Utah Tech @ UT Arlington +0.3 141.8 52% 69–71 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State -3.5 149.8 33% 69–65 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland -3.1 137.0 41% 78–69 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado +3.2 153.3 67% 85–82 ✗
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State +2.0 128.4 59% 62–69 ✓
Minnesota @ Nebraska +10.9 136.9 86% 67–78 ✓
Ball State @ Eastern Michigan -6.8 152.5 23% 68–75 ✗
UT Martin @ Morehead State +2.9 141.8 67% 58–72 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas +8.1 152.7 81% 74–76 ✓
Florida State @ Miami +15.7 158.6 89% 85–84 ✗
Southern @ Bethune-Cookman -5.4 145.6 30% 53–60 ✗
Delaware State @ Morgan State +7.8 141.0 78% 78–83 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Coppin State -3.1 147.9 37% 78–57 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee +5.8 145.2 73% 49–63 ✓
Vermont @ Bryant +0.3 150.6 49% 70–66 ✗
Colgate @ Navy +0.6 144.2 50% 64–60 ✗
Rice @ Charlotte +5.9 139.5 76% 54–70 ✓
Houston Christian @ Nicholls +10.0 158.7 86% 64–68 ✓
Auburn @ Kentucky +3.5 143.4 68% 54–86 ✓
Presbyterian @ Charleston Southern +5.0 135.5 68% 59–85 ✓
VMI @ Western Carolina +10.9 149.2 85% 66–85 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State -4.4 138.0 28% 62–63 ✗
Wagner @ Saint Francis +0.4 134.1 53% 68–58 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield -6.1 129.4 26% 70–66 ✓
Howard @ North Carolina Central +6.5 145.0 76% 60–68 ✓
Grambling @ Florida A&M -8.8 127.4 17% 69–55 ✓
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State -8.1 153.7 21% 88–76 ✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana +8.4 149.5 80% 75–78 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Longwood +2.4 137.7 62% 76–66 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville +3.5 153.8 68% 78–93 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State +3.2 155.2 67% 93–81 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois -0.3 144.8 46% 75–66 ✓
Little Rock @ Lindenwood +1.4 148.8 54% 96–97 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State +3.7 138.8 69% 75–71 ✗
American University @ Loyola Maryland +0.4 133.2 49% 77–83 ✓
Washington State @ California -10.7 129.7 16% 63–57 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +10.4 138.6 85% 55–92 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Incarnate Word -1.2 141.1 44% 75–79 ✗
Kent State @ Bowling Green -11.7 146.1 14% 79–69 ✓
Omaha @ Denver +4.4 149.4 69% 61–72 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay -9.2 137.4 16% 78–61 ✓
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh +8.1 146.8 79% 82–99 ✓
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +3.6 148.0 68% 75–83 ✓
Southern Utah @ Sam Houston +6.4 143.3 76% 57–64 ✓
Virginia @ North Carolina +2.4 136.7 62% 63–71 ✓
South Carolina @ Tennessee +20.7 133.1 90% 45–85 ✓
Florida @ Vanderbilt +2.1 146.0 62% 72–88 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Louis +10.4 145.6 87% 62–81 ✓
La Salle @ George Washington +2.6 154.3 65% 85–92 ✓
George Mason @ Dayton +9.0 128.6 81% 74–69 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal Poly -6.0 134.7 26% 58–52 ✓
Portland State @ Montana State +9.8 144.6 84% 78–91 ✓
Texas Southern @ Jackson State +2.0 144.4 60% 69–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.