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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–20 on winners spread MAE 8.6 55 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Memphis @ Wichita State	-2.9	149.0	35%	83–78	✓
UTSA @ Florida Atlantic	+17.7	150.7	90%	66–106	✓
UTEP @ Florida International	+2.0	136.8	58%	87–82	✗
North Texas @ Charlotte	-1.6	123.5	40%	49–55	✗
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb	+0.4	130.8	52%	75–63	✗
Stonehill @ Wagner	+1.4	127.5	59%	44–54	✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Sacred Heart	+5.6	136.6	70%	70–63	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis	+0.1	158.0	49%	72–82	✓
Central Connecticut @ Merrimack	+2.7	129.9	61%	54–70	✓
Wright State @ Oakland	-2.9	161.0	41%	68–75	✗
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy	+2.3	140.8	64%	67–64	✗
Elon @ William & Mary	+2.3	135.3	60%	60–73	✓
Towson @ Charleston	+12.3	150.6	86%	75–83	✓
Delaware @ North Carolina A&T	-1.2	145.4	49%	73–71	✓
Monmouth @ Hampton	+3.7	140.9	65%	81–86	✓
Stony Brook @ UNC Wilmington	+10.0	132.3	86%	69–76	✓
Northeastern @ Drexel	+7.1	130.8	75%	48–75	✓
Rice @ UAB	+11.5	161.1	86%	57–85	✓
Utah Tech @ UT Rio Grande Valley	-0.0	153.7	48%	88–81	✓
California Baptist @ Sam Houston	+9.3	129.9	81%	45–56	✓
Robert Morris @ IU Indianapolis	-11.2	138.5	14%	75–81	✗
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans	-5.5	152.8	27%	82–88	✗
SE Louisiana @ Lamar	-3.2	146.9	31%	83–60	✓
McNeese @ Houston Christian	+1.2	153.5	51%	80–85	✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State	-3.6	136.7	33%	58–77	✗
St. Thomas @ North Dakota State	+1.1	147.7	55%	64–73	✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota	-14.4	153.6	14%	82–70	✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State	+10.0	135.9	84%	50–73	✓
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville	+8.3	154.0	81%	79–74	✗
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+12.3	145.7	85%	84–80	✗
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word	-6.2	144.6	24%	71–66	✓
Michigan @ Rutgers	+5.6	132.6	70%	58–45	✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington	-3.5	144.5	35%	86–76	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southern Indiana	+4.1	152.6	67%	82–79	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Milwaukee	+2.9	147.4	66%	94–96	✓
Northwestern @ Illinois	+5.1	136.5	68%	62–66	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky	+2.1	147.5	59%	66–76	✓
USC @ Colorado	+2.0	142.5	61%	84–65	✗
Washington @ California	-7.4	129.9	22%	65–56	✓
Tennessee State @ UT Martin	+3.9	154.4	67%	88–82	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood	-2.5	145.2	38%	102–105	✗
Sacramento State @ Montana State	+8.5	131.0	82%	56–60	✓
Idaho @ Idaho State	+3.7	141.2	66%	55–65	✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State	-1.7	138.6	40%	89–82	✓
Cleveland State @ Green Bay	-13.7	135.2	13%	76–65	✓
Pacific @ Saint Mary's	+16.7	141.9	90%	52–83	✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara	+11.9	160.5	86%	82–91	✓
Long Beach State @ UC Santa Barbara	+5.0	148.4	70%	73–78	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Northridge	-0.5	130.3	45%	68–75	✗
UC San Diego @ UC Irvine	+12.8	140.6	88%	99–91	✗
UCLA @ Utah	-5.4	131.9	27%	78–71	✓
San Diego @ Gonzaga	+18.7	169.9	90%	72–97	✓
Washington State @ Stanford	+0.8	137.7	52%	67–63	✗
Portland @ San Francisco	+6.6	155.9	76%	89–92	✓
UC Riverside @ Hawai'i	+3.5	135.5	70%	54–52	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.