We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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96–28 on winners spread MAE 9.2 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Manhattan @ Canisius -6.9 151.6 26% 77–72 ✓
Davidson @ VCU +15.0 139.4 88% 56–80 ✓
Princeton @ Columbia -1.3 147.4 39% 73–68 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Cornell +10.8 157.5 83% 62–90 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac +7.1 134.2 75% 64–69 ✓
Marist @ Sacred Heart +0.2 141.9 50% 54–67 ✓
Rider @ Merrimack +8.8 131.6 71% 83–78 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield -2.3 137.2 44% 62–69 ✗
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina +1.3 142.9 56% 61–59 ✗
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe -14.2 148.4 13% 94–67 ✓
UCLA @ Purdue +4.9 138.3 72% 66–76 ✓
James Madison @ Texas State +0.4 148.8 53% 93–102 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern +2.6 154.2 69% 75–76 ✓
Troy @ Southern Miss -7.9 139.7 23% 70–58 ✓
Louisiana @ South Alabama +12.1 138.2 87% 42–65 ✓
Iowa @ Northwestern +6.4 151.2 75% 57–68 ✓
App State @ Marshall +1.2 134.0 62% 57–75 ✓
Kent State @ Akron +4.1 151.6 69% 72–77 ✓
Nevada @ UNLV +1.5 134.9 58% 55–68 ✓
Clemson @ Virginia -8.7 128.6 21% 71–58 ✓
Maryland @ Penn State -3.8 152.8 36% 68–64 ✓
Miami @ North Carolina +17.1 160.3 89% 73–92 ✓
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech +1.5 144.3 58% 95–101 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Fordham -7.1 147.6 24% 90–76 ✓
American University @ Colgate +2.0 138.4 61% 67–59 ✗
UConn @ Providence -5.6 145.7 31% 75–63 ✓
Butler @ Villanova +6.2 143.4 74% 70–80 ✓
Auburn @ Kentucky -5.1 164.1 26% 94–78 ✓
Lehigh @ Army +3.0 142.9 68% 89–67 ✗
Lafayette @ Boston University +1.1 133.6 60% 64–66 ✓
Chicago State @ Saint Francis +9.0 148.5 85% 71–80 ✓
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell +4.8 149.8 72% 53–79 ✓
Vermont @ UMBC -0.8 139.3 30% 79–69 ✓
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky +0.4 145.9 53% 79–88 ✓
Arkansas @ South Carolina -3.3 143.7 42% 53–72 ✗
Chattanooga @ VMI -6.8 151.2 27% 91–70 ✓
East Tennessee State @ The Citadel -12.3 133.2 14% 81–66 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ohio +2.2 156.7 61% 66–75 ✓
Texas Tech @ Kansas +1.6 146.7 62% 78–73 ✗
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate -6.7 157.1 33% 83–66 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian +4.5 143.9 71% 57–68 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Radford +10.3 140.7 83% 60–76 ✓
Tulane @ Tulsa -3.0 141.6 39% 79–77 ✓
George Mason @ Duquesne -2.8 130.3 36% 68–85 ✗
Richmond @ Dayton +13.4 142.0 87% 64–74 ✓
Air Force @ New Mexico +20.0 144.7 91% 71–92 ✓
Bucknell @ Holy Cross -2.6 145.6 34% 94–81 ✓
Minnesota @ Nebraska +7.9 137.0 76% 67–65 ✗
Bryant @ Maine +0.5 147.3 51% 80–72 ✗
UAlbany @ NJIT -4.8 144.1 26% 86–59 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Hofstra +8.5 133.1 79% 49–70 ✓
Monmouth @ Drexel +4.4 137.0 71% 61–71 ✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary +2.0 148.0 62% 70–68 ✗
Oklahoma @ Ole Miss +7.0 152.5 78% 84–87 ✓
Furman @ Wofford +2.0 140.5 55% 78–75 ✗
Ball State @ Bowling Green +0.4 147.8 55% 52–61 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida International -4.2 136.6 37% 84–79 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Omaha +11.3 153.2 85% 57–80 ✓
Seton Hall @ St. John's +19.2 136.7 91% 61–71 ✓
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State +0.9 146.6 59% 88–91 ✓
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis -2.7 153.8 49% 84–91 ✗
NC State @ Georgia Tech +3.3 142.1 68% 62–87 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UT Arlington +3.3 141.2 59% 70–59 ✗
South Dakota State @ Denver -8.6 147.8 21% 62–78 ✗
Incarnate Word @ East Texas A&M -4.4 133.8 33% 75–68 ✓
LSU @ Mississippi State +9.5 152.3 82% 69–81 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State +8.9 146.7 83% 52–94 ✓
Alabama @ Tennessee +3.4 151.7 70% 76–79 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop +4.5 160.9 71% 90–103 ✓
UCF @ TCU +5.0 150.3 69% 78–89 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Louis +1.5 143.0 58% 67–98 ✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -3.5 148.8 33% 75–72 ✓
Utah State @ Colorado State +2.3 148.7 61% 66–93 ✓
Texas Southern @ Jackson State +2.5 145.5 65% 52–67 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +4.2 137.4 74% 68–81 ✓
Yale @ Harvard -11.4 144.8 19% 69–74 ✗
USC @ Oregon +7.8 153.3 83% 61–82 ✓
Long Island University @ Fairleigh Dickinson +1.4 135.1 58% 74–55 ✗
Brown @ Dartmouth +3.0 144.4 66% 58–78 ✓
Montana State @ Sacramento State -5.8 134.5 30% 87–60 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee +14.0 148.2 88% 67–89 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State +1.0 148.2 58% 57–68 ✓
Hampton @ Towson +5.4 134.5 72% 72–75 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley +12.3 142.0 87% 59–100 ✓
Samford @ UNC Greensboro +0.8 142.2 57% 100–108 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee Tech +4.5 147.6 68% 76–74 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP +0.7 146.9 51% 76–75 ✗
Cincinnati @ Houston +12.8 129.8 88% 64–73 ✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State +10.1 144.1 87% 79–83 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State +7.6 142.6 82% 55–71 ✓
Le Moyne @ Stonehill +6.1 146.1 76% 79–85 ✓
Creighton @ Xavier +2.5 148.5 65% 61–83 ✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State +3.9 132.7 67% 56–61 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +10.1 150.1 84% 69–81 ✓
Toledo @ Buffalo -5.1 153.1 34% 74–87 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State +7.5 149.0 79% 69–74 ✓
Morehead State @ UT Martin +4.4 137.2 68% 59–47 ✗
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville +3.2 136.2 67% 65–73 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois -4.9 133.2 30% 58–73 ✗
Howard @ North Carolina Central +0.6 152.7 62% 68–72 ✓
SMU @ Stanford -1.6 148.9 48% 68–73 ✗
Weber State @ Idaho +4.1 143.1 67% 79–81 ✓
Montana @ Portland State +2.0 143.7 63% 76–79 ✓
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington -0.8 144.3 45% 78–54 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly +2.7 157.9 66% 72–98 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota +5.1 166.2 74% 79–92 ✓
Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois -4.2 148.4 30% 74–70 ✓
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +6.4 144.8 80% 71–74 ✓
Southern @ Bethune-Cookman -0.5 142.7 50% 69–70 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +2.7 143.3 65% 54–68 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Sam Houston +0.1 139.7 49% 90–66 ✗
New Orleans @ UT Rio Grande Valley +10.0 154.1 84% 78–88 ✓
Missouri @ Vanderbilt -1.2 159.4 45% 93–97 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Louisville +9.0 148.2 82% 68–79 ✓
Nicholls @ Stephen F. Austin -0.7 139.5 48% 94–70 ✓
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts +0.4 153.2 53% 88–91 ✓
La Salle @ George Washington +8.7 143.0 82% 60–71 ✓
Grambling @ Florida A&M +1.9 132.1 61% 68–73 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Columbia +2.8 153.2 64% 92–87 ✗
Indiana @ Washington -2.7 148.4 39% 78–62 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Wagner -9.1 123.3 18% 55–48 ✓
Campbell @ Charleston +6.7 143.3 78% 65–87 ✓
Elon @ Stony Brook -6.6 137.0 32% 66–71 ✗
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State +2.8 141.0 65% 47–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.