Betting Lines
| Spread | WMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +175 WMU -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WMU +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | WMU -3.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WMU -4.2 (+0.2) | 148.4 (-4.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WMU -5.3 (+1.3) | 147.5 (-3.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WMU -3.5 (-0.5) | 145.3 (-1.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WMU -3.3 (-0.7) | 147.5 (-3.5) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | NIU 85 – 65 WMU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | WMU 72 – 70 NIU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | WMU 95 – 90 NIU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | NIU 81 – 53 WMU |
| Feb 1, 2023 | NIU 73 – 59 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-10 | 6-9 |
| Away | 1-15 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -14.7 (#354) | -8.3 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.97 (#358) | -1.34 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.31 (#355) | -1.74 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.371 (#358) | 0.449 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 17.5% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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