Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NIU -112 WMU -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +20 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | WMU -2.2 (+22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WMU -2.3 (+22.3) | 142.2 (+7.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WMU -2.3 (+22.3) | 141.0 (+9.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WMU -2.2 (+22.2) | 140.3 (+9.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WMU -2.8 (+22.8) | 141.3 (+8.7) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | WMU 74 – 70 NIU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | WMU 72 – 70 NIU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | WMU 95 – 90 NIU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | NIU 81 – 53 WMU |
| Feb 1, 2023 | NIU 73 – 59 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#315) | -5.1 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#314) | -0.63 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#320) | -0.73 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#311) | 0.474 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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