Betting Lines
| Spread | WMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | WMU -138 NIU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WMU +5 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | WMU -2.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (+31.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WMU -0.6 (+4.4) | 150.8 (+34.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WMU -0.9 (+4.1) | 149.9 (+35.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WMU -1.3 (+3.7) | 148.5 (+36.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WMU -0.8 (+4.2) | 150.9 (+34.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | NIU 85 – 65 WMU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | WMU 74 – 70 NIU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | WMU 72 – 70 NIU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | NIU 81 – 53 WMU |
| Feb 1, 2023 | NIU 73 – 59 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-7 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#275) | -4.1 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#272) | -0.15 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#282) | -0.17 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#276) | 0.509 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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