Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
Stony Brook Seawolves
71 66
FINAL Conference
Elon Phoenix
Coastal Athletic Association · Island FCU Arena · March 1, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ELON -5.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money STBK +210 / ELON -250
Model Predictions
Spread Total STBK win
Actual STBK +5 137 Won
Massey ELON -7.7 (+12.7)
Massey Totals 138.7 (-1.7)
Bradley-Terry 26%
Weighted B-T 16%
Efficiency Plus ML ELON -6.4 (+11.4) 137.3 (-0.3) 36%
Baseline Tuned ML ELON -6.2 (+11.2) 136.9 (+0.1) 25%
Baseline ML ELON -6.7 (+11.7) 138.6 (-1.6) 28%
Baseline Plus ML ELON -6.6 (+11.6) 137.0 (-0.0) 32%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 31, 2026 STBK 7268 ELON
Feb 9, 2024 STBK 7964 ELON
Feb 3, 2023 ELON 6955 STBK

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings STBK ELON
Overall 8-24 17-16
Conference 4-14 8-10
Home 5-9 10-4
Away 3-13 6-9
Neutral 0-2 1-3
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L1 L5
Avg Pts For 65.6 71.5
Avg Pts Against 75.1 70.9
Massey -11.6 (#336) -0.7 (#171)
Bradley-Terry -1.89 (#326) -0.27 (#193)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.42 (#326) -0.11 (#175)
RPI 0.432 (#306) 0.500 (#181)
Shooting & Four Factors STBK ELON
FG% 40.6% 43.2%
3PT% 33.4% 32.6%
REB / G 32.6 39.1
OREB / G 10.3 12.2
AST / TO 0.92 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.2% 49.9%
TOV% 18.5% 19.2%
ORB% 29.4% 36.8%
FT Rate 23.8% 29.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.9% 47.4%
Opp TOV% 15.0% 13.4%
DRB% 68.4% 69.0%
Opp FT Rate 19.7% 17.4%

Game Analysis

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