But where the fuck is the waitress at with my drinks! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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79–43 on winners spread MAE 9.5 122 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Baylor @ Kansas +9.3 159.2 80% 62–80 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Dayton +20.0 146.1 97% 51–78 ✓
Marquette @ DePaul +5.5 143.1 69% 75–80 ✓
Ohio @ Ball State -4.6 144.6 34% 71–76 ✗
Colorado State @ Boise State +4.0 144.7 64% 73–79 ✓
UConn @ Georgetown -14.4 146.3 10% 64–62 ✓
Minnesota @ Illinois +17.9 139.8 95% 67–77 ✓
Virginia @ SMU -1.6 161.2 44% 72–68 ✓
Kentucky @ Tennessee +4.4 148.2 65% 80–78 ✗
Butler @ Seton Hall +5.7 143.5 70% 77–66 ✗
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech +5.1 147.3 68% 76–89 ✓
Georgia Tech @ NC State +20.7 158.0 97% 78–74 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Canisius -1.5 133.4 45% 78–68 ✓
Elon @ Hofstra +7.7 159.6 76% 89–85 ✗
Duquesne @ Fordham +0.8 149.7 53% 74–63 ✗
Alabama @ Oklahoma -5.5 175.7 31% 83–81 ✓
UCLA @ Ohio State +5.0 151.0 68% 74–86 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lafayette +0.7 140.7 53% 55–74 ✓
Boston University @ Loyola Maryland -3.2 159.1 38% 57–74 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green +10.1 138.8 82% 79–85 ✓
Buffalo @ Miami (OH) +11.6 165.9 85% 102–105 ✓
Wagner @ New Haven -0.6 135.4 48% 74–80 ✗
Chattanooga @ Western Carolina +4.6 152.1 66% 90–82 ✗
Old Dominion @ App State +4.4 138.0 66% 75–73 ✗
Iowa State @ Cincinnati -10.7 140.8 17% 70–79 ✗
Florida @ Vanderbilt +4.6 162.6 66% 98–94 ✗
Bradley @ Illinois State +7.5 148.2 75% 62–88 ✓
Bucknell @ Colgate +12.7 142.5 88% 76–95 ✓
TCU @ Utah -6.5 156.8 28% 79–82 ✗
Rutgers @ Wisconsin +16.4 152.8 93% 87–96 ✓
Iowa @ Indiana +0.6 146.5 52% 74–57 ✗
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville -3.1 150.8 39% 69–67 ✓
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb -6.8 143.4 27% 92–55 ✓
Rider @ Saint Peter's +13.1 132.3 88% 58–69 ✓
Syracuse @ Boston College -6.2 135.3 29% 73–81 ✗
Navy @ Lehigh -3.2 140.8 39% 82–79 ✓
Columbia @ Brown -5.0 139.1 32% 80–86 ✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ North Dakota State +3.0 154.0 61% 65–68 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota +0.3 166.3 51% 80–96 ✓
Cornell @ Yale +11.8 189.1 86% 68–102 ✓
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State -7.8 156.9 24% 78–80 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ IU Indianapolis -0.1 179.6 50% 80–77 ✓
Western Michigan @ Akron +19.3 172.5 96% 89–104 ✓
Fairfield @ Marist +11.8 139.1 86% 67–82 ✓
Siena @ Manhattan -7.5 149.1 25% 74–59 ✓
Princeton @ Harvard +7.8 131.0 76% 80–87 ✓
Stonehill @ Mercyhurst +7.2 128.1 74% 62–57 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis -9.5 146.1 19% 98–90 ✓
Le Moyne @ Chicago State -3.1 152.9 39% 72–57 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Samford -6.3 147.8 28% 76–75 ✓
West Georgia @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.0 162.5 84% 72–90 ✓
Queens University @ Stetson -8.8 164.7 21% 87–81 ✓
North Florida @ Central Arkansas +12.4 165.9 87% 69–98 ✓
Sam Houston @ Florida International -1.8 169.2 43% 76–63 ✓
New Mexico State @ Delaware -6.2 135.8 29% 97–68 ✓
Miami @ Clemson +3.4 147.5 62% 59–69 ✓
Utah State @ Grand Canyon -9.0 145.6 21% 74–84 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ La Salle -3.4 143.2 38% 74–78 ✗
Longwood @ Radford +5.5 164.4 69% 83–85 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Valparaiso -2.6 123.8 41% 44–54 ✗
Drake @ UIC +3.0 143.8 61% 67–74 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Merrimack -2.4 139.0 41% 71–83 ✗
Massachusetts @ Northern Illinois -7.2 154.0 26% 68–70 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth +4.3 160.7 65% 84–74 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern +5.4 160.8 69% 79–75 ✗
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +2.1 136.2 58% 90–68 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky +7.0 170.0 74% 81–65 ✗
UTEP @ Liberty +14.2 138.6 90% 69–80 ✓
Georgia State @ UL Monroe -2.2 155.8 42% 77–57 ✓
Missouri @ LSU +7.0 157.0 74% 70–78 ✓
Arizona @ UCF -8.0 163.6 23% 84–77 ✓
Michigan @ Oregon -21.4 159.6 3% 81–71 ✓
Nebraska @ Northwestern -5.6 147.4 31% 77–58 ✓
North Carolina @ California -3.1 146.1 39% 78–84 ✗
Arkansas @ Georgia +3.5 187.2 63% 76–90 ✓
Indiana State @ Murray State +15.6 168.0 92% 81–85 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alcorn State +0.4 156.4 52% 72–71 ✗
Richmond @ Saint Louis +16.1 165.1 93% 63–88 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Jackson State -6.2 161.3 29% 78–82 ✗
Nevada @ Air Force -16.7 134.2 6% 81–66 ✓
Charleston @ Stony Brook -1.5 139.4 45% 106–112 ✗
Mercer @ UNC Greensboro -9.1 162.3 20% 102–92 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield -10.4 151.8 17% 83–62 ✓
Lamar @ Nicholls +4.2 140.8 65% 90–80 ✗
Louisiana @ South Alabama +11.7 126.7 86% 59–56 ✗
James Madison @ Marshall +8.3 154.8 77% 72–77 ✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech +1.2 148.0 54% 76–70 ✗
Western Illinois @ Little Rock +9.0 136.2 79% 79–86 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley +8.3 135.2 77% 74–86 ✓
Howard @ North Carolina Central -3.3 141.3 38% 83–69 ✓
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State -7.2 141.5 26% 89–82 ✓
Morgan State @ Delaware State +5.4 139.0 69% 80–79 ✗
Coppin State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +16.3 135.9 93% 67–70 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +9.6 128.2 81% 56–68 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Houston Christian +3.8 142.2 64% 70–81 ✓
Arkansas State @ Troy +5.8 174.1 70% 74–99 ✓
Southern Miss @ Texas State -1.9 142.2 43% 67–74 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State +11.9 151.7 86% 67–73 ✓
Lindenwood @ UT Martin +6.4 143.6 72% 55–69 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State +6.7 143.2 73% 68–55 ✗
UNLV @ San José State -1.0 156.2 46% 76–62 ✓
Southern @ Grambling +6.1 157.0 71% 71–53 ✗
Wofford @ Furman +8.6 149.2 78% 74–70 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC Davis +0.2 145.3 51% 72–75 ✓
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word +10.3 145.9 83% 74–76 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +13.9 142.5 90% 52–63 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Jacksonville State +4.1 120.6 65% 60–64 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +14.8 150.2 91% 62–90 ✓
McNeese @ UT Rio Grande Valley -8.3 146.8 23% 76–79 ✗
Purdue @ USC -9.7 161.9 19% 69–64 ✓
Duke @ Stanford -11.5 149.2 15% 80–50 ✓
Michigan State @ Washington -4.2 139.6 35% 80–63 ✓
Pacific @ Oregon State -1.9 142.1 43% 81–64 ✓
Colorado @ West Virginia +5.2 148.4 68% 61–72 ✓
Wake Forest @ Florida State -3.6 166.7 37% 69–68 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ New Orleans -7.7 150.7 24% 84–79 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State +9.5 158.5 80% 84–66 ✗
Texas A&M @ Texas +4.7 174.7 66% 74–70 ✗
South Carolina @ Auburn +10.0 158.2 82% 67–71 ✓
Missouri State @ Middle Tennessee +9.8 136.2 81% 87–90 ✓
Florida A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +5.0 157.9 68% 71–67 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Mississippi Valley State -12.4 149.6 13% 79–63 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.