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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–12 on winners spread MAE 8.5 44 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Youngstown State @ Wright State	+8.2	141.1	77%	83–93	✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee	-3.1	171.9	39%	73–60	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky	+9.6	160.9	81%	71–96	✓
Green Bay @ Cleveland State	-4.6	153.6	34%	88–73	✓
Maine @ Vermont	+13.7	134.9	89%	62–67	✓
Elon @ Northeastern	-1.0	168.8	46%	78–85	✗
North Carolina A&T @ William & Mary	+15.4	158.6	92%	89–97	✓
Drexel @ Monmouth	+6.5	132.5	72%	73–51	✗
Hofstra @ Stony Brook	-9.1	138.5	20%	71–76	✗
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro	+12.1	152.9	86%	66–69	✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern	+4.8	164.1	67%	84–87	✓
West Georgia @ Stetson	-0.8	150.7	47%	86–95	✗
Queens University @ Florida Gulf Coast	+3.7	175.2	63%	85–74	✗
North Florida @ North Alabama	+7.2	159.2	74%	105–91	✗
UTEP @ Delaware	+3.1	128.9	61%	70–69	✗
Jacksonville @ Central Arkansas	+10.3	140.2	82%	60–62	✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota	+8.4	159.6	78%	83–99	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ North Dakota	-9.2	153.9	20%	91–80	✓
Charleston @ Towson	+3.0	134.9	61%	52–61	✓
Arkansas State @ South Alabama	-1.0	154.9	46%	87–91	✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Austin Peay	+10.8	150.0	84%	72–74	✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb	+11.5	161.1	85%	71–81	✓
California Baptist @ Abilene Christian	-0.8	136.6	47%	74–58	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin	+9.8	130.4	81%	59–65	✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee State	+9.8	151.5	81%	100–105	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Little Rock	+2.2	135.0	58%	63–74	✓
Tarleton State @ Southern Utah	-10.0	159.2	18%	105–106	✗
Wichita State @ Florida Atlantic	+3.1	155.9	61%	67–85	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Davis	+5.2	170.9	68%	69–74	✓
Idaho @ Idaho State	+4.5	150.6	66%	68–76	✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State	+9.6	166.8	81%	80–91	✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee Tech	+7.4	145.1	75%	71–54	✗
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State	+5.9	157.6	71%	88–76	✗
UT Arlington @ Utah Tech	-1.0	138.2	46%	56–52	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield	-4.1	153.8	35%	75–69	✓
San Diego @ Seattle U	+10.0	145.1	82%	64–75	✓
UC Riverside @ Long Beach State	+5.2	151.0	68%	73–88	✓
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly	-7.9	152.8	24%	86–66	✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC San Diego	+12.7	161.4	88%	84–79	✗
Northern Colorado @ Portland State	+4.8	159.6	67%	73–76	✓
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State	+3.4	150.3	62%	69–83	✓
Gonzaga @ Washington State	-19.7	156.0	4%	86–65	✓
Creighton @ Providence	+0.9	171.5	53%	88–93	✓
Toledo @ Kent State	+3.8	173.8	64%	84–87	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.