But where the fuck is the waitress at with my drinks! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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93–31 on winners spread MAE 9.5 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Manhattan @ Canisius -6.8 156.0 27% 77–72 ✓
Davidson @ VCU +14.9 140.1 91% 56–80 ✓
Princeton @ Columbia -1.5 153.7 45% 73–68 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Cornell +12.0 159.9 86% 62–90 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac +8.6 133.7 78% 64–69 ✓
Marist @ Sacred Heart +0.9 143.8 53% 54–67 ✓
Rider @ Merrimack +10.6 125.1 83% 83–78 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield -2.8 142.6 40% 62–69 ✗
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina +2.4 137.2 59% 61–59 ✗
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe -16.5 146.3 7% 94–67 ✓
UCLA @ Purdue +3.9 136.8 64% 66–76 ✓
James Madison @ Texas State +0.8 146.8 53% 93–102 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern +4.4 159.6 66% 75–76 ✓
Troy @ Southern Miss -8.6 141.6 22% 70–58 ✓
Louisiana @ South Alabama +14.0 134.5 90% 42–65 ✓
Iowa @ Northwestern +5.6 155.2 70% 57–68 ✓
App State @ Marshall +1.5 131.4 55% 57–75 ✓
Kent State @ Akron +4.0 149.3 64% 72–77 ✓
Nevada @ UNLV -0.9 133.7 47% 55–68 ✗
Clemson @ Virginia -7.7 129.2 24% 71–58 ✓
Maryland @ Penn State -6.3 154.9 28% 68–64 ✓
Miami @ North Carolina +18.2 169.5 95% 73–92 ✓
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech +2.2 145.9 58% 95–101 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Fordham -8.3 152.7 23% 90–76 ✓
American University @ Colgate +3.5 139.8 63% 67–59 ✗
UConn @ Providence -5.0 146.2 33% 75–63 ✓
Butler @ Villanova +6.2 146.0 71% 70–80 ✓
Auburn @ Kentucky -5.5 166.8 31% 94–78 ✓
Lehigh @ Army +3.0 147.1 61% 89–67 ✗
Lafayette @ Boston University +2.2 128.0 58% 64–66 ✓
Chicago State @ Saint Francis +10.9 145.2 84% 71–80 ✓
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell +6.6 153.3 73% 53–79 ✓
Vermont @ UMBC -0.3 142.5 49% 79–69 ✓
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky +0.6 139.9 52% 79–88 ✓
Arkansas @ South Carolina -3.6 137.6 37% 53–72 ✗
Chattanooga @ VMI -7.6 153.0 24% 91–70 ✓
East Tennessee State @ The Citadel -13.7 133.0 11% 81–66 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ohio +2.8 160.0 60% 66–75 ✓
Texas Tech @ Kansas +0.6 145.3 52% 78–73 ✗
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate -6.4 160.7 28% 83–66 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian +4.1 146.5 65% 57–68 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Radford +9.3 140.1 80% 60–76 ✓
Tulane @ Tulsa -4.3 140.0 35% 79–77 ✓
George Mason @ Duquesne -3.6 125.1 37% 68–85 ✗
Richmond @ Dayton +14.9 142.3 91% 64–74 ✓
Air Force @ New Mexico +24.8 145.1 99% 71–92 ✓
Bucknell @ Holy Cross -3.1 145.8 39% 94–81 ✓
Minnesota @ Nebraska +8.6 134.8 78% 67–65 ✗
Bryant @ Maine +0.9 147.7 53% 80–72 ✗
UAlbany @ NJIT -4.2 140.1 35% 86–59 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Hofstra +9.2 133.8 80% 49–70 ✓
Monmouth @ Drexel +6.8 135.8 73% 61–71 ✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary +3.1 155.8 61% 70–68 ✗
Oklahoma @ Ole Miss +7.6 150.8 75% 84–87 ✓
Furman @ Wofford +3.2 140.0 61% 78–75 ✗
Ball State @ Bowling Green +1.7 150.7 56% 52–61 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida International -4.8 137.6 33% 84–79 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Omaha +11.1 156.4 84% 57–80 ✓
Seton Hall @ St. John's +22.6 131.3 98% 61–71 ✓
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State +1.6 145.4 56% 88–91 ✓
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis -4.0 155.3 36% 84–91 ✗
NC State @ Georgia Tech +3.5 139.9 62% 62–87 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UT Arlington +5.1 146.4 68% 70–59 ✗
South Dakota State @ Denver -10.4 148.7 17% 62–78 ✗
Incarnate Word @ East Texas A&M -3.1 137.5 39% 75–68 ✓
LSU @ Mississippi State +9.4 150.3 80% 69–81 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State +11.6 153.9 86% 52–94 ✓
Alabama @ Tennessee +4.3 153.4 65% 76–79 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop +4.8 166.6 67% 90–103 ✓
UCF @ TCU +3.3 148.4 62% 78–89 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Louis +3.3 141.8 62% 67–98 ✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -3.3 154.8 38% 75–72 ✓
Utah State @ Colorado State -0.6 152.6 48% 66–93 ✗
Texas Southern @ Jackson State +4.6 145.9 66% 52–67 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +4.8 139.6 67% 68–81 ✓
Yale @ Harvard -12.4 145.7 13% 69–74 ✗
USC @ Oregon +7.7 152.4 76% 61–82 ✓
Long Island University @ Fairleigh Dickinson +2.5 136.6 59% 74–55 ✗
Brown @ Dartmouth +3.7 143.9 63% 58–78 ✓
Montana State @ Sacramento State -6.2 133.3 29% 87–60 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee +16.6 143.1 93% 67–89 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State +1.7 150.9 56% 57–68 ✓
Hampton @ Towson +5.8 130.2 70% 72–75 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley +12.7 142.0 88% 59–100 ✓
Samford @ UNC Greensboro +0.8 144.4 53% 100–108 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee Tech +6.0 145.4 71% 76–74 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP +1.1 146.8 54% 76–75 ✗
Cincinnati @ Houston +15.3 123.9 92% 64–73 ✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State +14.4 143.1 90% 79–83 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State +8.0 146.2 77% 55–71 ✓
Le Moyne @ Stonehill +7.8 150.4 76% 79–85 ✓
Creighton @ Xavier +1.2 148.8 54% 61–83 ✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State +4.9 130.4 67% 56–61 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +11.7 154.4 86% 69–81 ✓
Toledo @ Buffalo -5.9 159.4 29% 74–87 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State +10.0 154.5 82% 69–74 ✓
Morehead State @ UT Martin +6.6 137.2 73% 59–47 ✗
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville +2.6 129.3 59% 65–73 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois -6.2 134.3 29% 58–73 ✗
Howard @ North Carolina Central +1.9 159.6 57% 68–72 ✓
SMU @ Stanford -2.7 154.2 40% 68–73 ✗
Weber State @ Idaho +5.4 147.3 69% 79–81 ✓
Montana @ Portland State +2.8 146.2 60% 76–79 ✓
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington -0.9 144.0 47% 78–54 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly +4.6 167.9 66% 72–98 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota +6.1 178.4 71% 79–92 ✓
Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois -2.8 145.3 40% 74–70 ✓
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +5.0 138.1 67% 71–74 ✓
Southern @ Bethune-Cookman -0.5 137.6 48% 69–70 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +4.1 145.6 65% 54–68 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Sam Houston +1.3 147.3 55% 90–66 ✗
New Orleans @ UT Rio Grande Valley +12.7 158.4 88% 78–88 ✓
Missouri @ Vanderbilt -2.1 161.7 42% 93–97 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Louisville +7.9 149.9 76% 68–79 ✓
Nicholls @ Stephen F. Austin -1.2 136.7 46% 94–70 ✓
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts -1.3 156.6 45% 88–91 ✗
La Salle @ George Washington +10.2 144.3 82% 60–71 ✓
Grambling @ Florida A&M +3.4 132.4 62% 68–73 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Columbia +5.4 157.2 69% 92–87 ✗
Indiana @ Washington -3.4 148.0 38% 78–62 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Wagner -7.9 115.2 24% 55–48 ✓
Campbell @ Charleston +5.4 144.7 69% 65–87 ✓
Elon @ Stony Brook -7.7 138.6 24% 66–71 ✗
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State +2.6 140.7 59% 47–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.