You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–5 on winners spread MAE 10.2 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida State @ Duke +24.8 144.5 99% 65–100 ✓
Boise State @ Fresno State -15.8 151.9 8% 66–61 ✓
Arizona State @ Utah +2.2 147.6 58% 73–99 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State -8.8 147.4 21% 83–58 ✓
McNeese @ Lamar -6.6 133.0 27% 68–66 ✓
Oakland @ Green Bay -5.4 143.9 31% 87–84 ✓
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington +11.8 160.5 86% 58–88 ✓
Marquette @ Georgetown -6.0 141.1 29% 76–61 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Baylor +15.5 153.5 92% 61–71 ✓
San Diego State @ Wyoming -9.6 126.0 19% 72–69 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge +4.9 148.2 67% 77–103 ✓
Georgia @ Texas +3.1 144.1 61% 83–67 ✗
Santa Clara @ Pacific -15.1 149.6 9% 97–66 ✓
Kansas City @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +9.8 144.8 81% 59–65 ✓
Texas A&M @ Florida +9.4 144.2 80% 70–89 ✓
Arizona @ Iowa State +2.4 152.6 59% 67–84 ✓
California Baptist @ Utah Tech -4.5 147.1 34% 61–57 ✓
Oregon State @ Saint Mary's +10.6 131.8 83% 64–74 ✓
West Virginia @ BYU +6.0 140.3 71% 56–77 ✓
Boston College @ California +8.1 148.6 77% 71–82 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona -3.2 155.5 38% 83–73 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego +29.1 138.0 100% 55–100 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Irvine +21.2 136.0 97% 60–70 ✓
Portland @ San Diego +2.5 156.9 59% 80–82 ✓
Washington State @ Pepperdine -4.7 158.8 33% 90–83 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Seattle U +0.2 143.1 51% 63–60 ✗
Gonzaga @ San Francisco -11.5 153.3 15% 95–75 ✓
UC Davis @ Hawai'i +3.5 130.4 62% 70–78 ✓
Charlotte @ East Carolina +9.0 146.2 79% 76–78 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ South Florida -2.0 156.9 43% 69–63 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Indiana State +1.7 160.6 56% 77–95 ✓
Iona @ Canisius -5.2 144.3 32% 82–52 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +10.8 138.1 84% 85–80 ✗
Wisconsin @ Michigan State +3.6 148.2 63% 62–71 ✓
Manhattan @ Niagara -1.1 149.2 46% 85–70 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley +3.3 142.1 62% 56–73 ✓
Princeton @ Cornell +5.7 155.4 70% 70–102 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist +5.5 119.6 69% 57–52 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Merrimack +2.6 135.7 60% 63–73 ✓
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart +8.9 151.3 79% 62–83 ✓
Siena @ Mount St. Mary's +1.1 143.4 54% 79–85 ✓
Evansville @ Illinois State +10.0 139.8 82% 53–62 ✓
Valparaiso @ UIC +7.8 158.2 76% 73–77 ✓
Murray State @ Belmont +3.5 155.3 62% 60–70 ✓
Missouri State @ Drake +13.9 121.9 90% 60–68 ✓
Illinois @ Michigan +2.3 161.2 58% 93–73 ✗
Memphis @ UAB -4.6 164.9 34% 88–81 ✓
Colorado @ Kansas State +5.9 141.1 70% 56–65 ✓
Rice @ UTSA +0.7 151.9 53% 56–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.