Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -425 BC +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -8.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -6.6 (+4.4) | 146.0 (+7.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -6.4 (+4.6) | 146.0 (+7.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -5.8 (+5.2) | 145.9 (+7.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -6.1 (+4.9) | 146.6 (+6.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CAL 86 – 75 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 4-16 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#111) | -1.7 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#153) | -0.15 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#135) | -0.23 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#201) | 0.467 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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