Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -125 SIE +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +6 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -1.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -2.3 (+3.7) | 144.1 (+19.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -1.2 (+4.8) | 143.6 (+20.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -1.0 (+5.0) | 144.1 (+19.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -0.5 (+5.5) | 144.6 (+19.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | SIE 63 – 58 MSM |
| Jan 11, 2026 | SIE 67 – 50 MSM |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SIE 82 – 68 MSM |
| Feb 4, 2024 | MSM 68 – 61 SIE |
| Dec 3, 2023 | MSM 80 – 48 SIE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#263) | -3.8 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#195) | -0.76 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#226) | -0.79 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#166) | 0.490 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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