Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | USD +120 PORT -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +2 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | USD -2.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -0.3 (+1.7) | 153.6 (+8.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -1.3 (+3.3) | 152.5 (+9.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -1.1 (+3.1) | 155.8 (+6.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -1.4 (+3.4) | 154.3 (+7.7) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PORT 87 – 74 USD |
| Feb 12, 2026 | USD 71 – 58 PORT |
| Jan 24, 2025 | PORT 92 – 82 USD |
| Feb 16, 2024 | USD 71 – 66 PORT |
| Jan 24, 2024 | USD 85 – 81 PORT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-27 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-13 | 9-7 |
| Away | 0-12 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#303) | -7.4 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.77 (#354) | -0.80 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#342) | -0.99 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#351) | 0.454 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.3% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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