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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–18 on winners spread MAE 8.7 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Winthrop @ Longwood	+3.9	164.5	64%	85–59	✗
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic	-2.4	137.3	42%	71–61	✓
Wagner @ Long Island University	+6.8	115.0	73%	47–60	✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+3.6	143.2	63%	69–82	✓
Chicago State @ Mercyhurst	+7.0	137.1	74%	68–90	✓
Le Moyne @ Central Connecticut	+17.4	143.9	94%	75–84	✓
Maine @ New Hampshire	-9.9	134.5	18%	73–66	✓
Vermont @ NJIT	-5.5	121.0	31%	71–61	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay	+3.4	144.5	62%	71–76	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+9.5	151.6	81%	79–74	✗
UNC Wilmington @ Campbell	-0.7	140.3	47%	79–60	✓
Elon @ Monmouth	-2.7	142.8	40%	76–79	✗
North Carolina A&T @ Northeastern	+10.2	147.3	82%	55–69	✓
Hampton @ Drexel	+3.9	129.9	64%	52–53	✓
William & Mary @ Towson	+5.6	146.5	70%	73–88	✓
Delaware @ Charleston	+9.3	164.3	80%	84–94	✓
Hofstra @ Stony Brook	-5.1	130.0	32%	56–59	✗
Chattanooga @ UNC Greensboro	+3.4	142.0	62%	75–63	✗
Kennesaw State @ Florida International	-4.2	143.9	35%	61–76	✗
Jacksonville State @ Liberty	+8.2	133.3	77%	55–59	✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee	+7.1	143.2	74%	66–71	✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State	-2.0	127.2	43%	52–67	✗
South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts	-10.7	156.8	16%	77–69	✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+12.2	164.7	87%	71–86	✓
Denver @ Kansas City	+7.7	134.8	76%	56–64	✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee Tech	+8.8	141.3	79%	82–69	✗
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin	+6.7	146.4	73%	63–79	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville	+1.7	137.3	56%	83–68	✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee State	+9.2	148.0	80%	55–64	✓
Little Rock @ Eastern Illinois	-5.0	124.7	32%	60–71	✗
Rutgers @ Michigan	+12.5	156.4	87%	82–84	✓
UAB @ Wichita State	+1.7	160.6	56%	80–72	✗
Idaho State @ Idaho	-0.1	149.2	50%	69–65	✓
Weber State @ Eastern Washington	+5.5	143.4	69%	66–64	✗
Cleveland State @ Wright State	+1.1	144.1	54%	76–82	✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech	+2.6	145.9	59%	82–75	✗
UT Arlington @ Grand Canyon	+11.2	154.2	85%	71–85	✓
Western Kentucky @ UTEP	+3.1	149.3	61%	80–73	✗
Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State	+1.8	137.5	57%	71–66	✗
San Diego @ Washington State	+15.8	156.6	92%	86–93	✓
Montana @ Sacramento State	-7.4	142.1	25%	60–54	✓
Montana State @ Portland State	+2.5	140.1	59%	52–69	✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge	-6.7	149.1	27%	77–71	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara	+8.2	160.6	77%	77–96	✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton	-18.5	137.4	5%	76–51	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State	-2.6	140.2	41%	88–87	✓
Pepperdine @ Portland	-0.4	157.6	49%	67–87	✗
California Baptist @ Seattle U	+3.4	140.7	62%	48–72	✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount	-12.9	128.0	12%	58–55	✓
UC Riverside @ Hawai'i	-0.7	143.6	47%	82–76	✓
Brown @ Harvard	-0.5	140.2	48%	59–52	✓
Yale @ Dartmouth	-8.7	153.2	21%	72–67	✓
Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan	-3.3	146.3	38%	73–84	✗
Iona @ Niagara	+0.5	138.6	52%	65–63	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.