I know you're dissatisfied with your position and your place. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–8 on winners spread MAE 6.6 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ole Miss @ Auburn +13.8 151.8 90% 76–106 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M +7.6 145.5 75% 86–84 ✗
Notre Dame @ Clemson +13.3 141.1 89% 68–83 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ High Point +22.6 164.9 98% 66–88 ✓
Radford @ Gardner-Webb -1.0 145.8 46% 63–56 ✓
Kansas State @ UCF +1.9 158.2 57% 76–80 ✓
South Florida @ Temple +5.2 156.9 68% 71–73 ✓
NC State @ Syracuse +0.9 146.4 53% 60–74 ✓
Fordham @ George Mason +15.4 141.3 92% 64–74 ✓
Dayton @ Rhode Island -1.9 154.2 43% 85–77 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Joseph's +5.1 133.8 68% 64–75 ✓
UIC @ Northern Iowa +7.4 150.1 75% 52–74 ✓
Bucknell @ Loyola Maryland -2.7 144.2 40% 70–67 ✓
Holy Cross @ Colgate +6.5 145.3 72% 73–81 ✓
Navy @ American University +4.6 136.0 66% 68–60 ✗
Queens University @ North Alabama +9.5 152.8 81% 69–74 ✓
Stetson @ Jacksonville +16.7 141.8 94% 72–79 ✓
Bellarmine @ Florida Gulf Coast +14.9 147.7 91% 61–80 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ North Florida -0.5 173.6 48% 86–81 ✓
Austin Peay @ West Georgia -2.6 142.4 41% 70–73 ✗
Wofford @ Western Carolina -10.0 145.7 18% 90–67 ✓
The Citadel @ Furman +17.5 137.7 94% 42–85 ✓
Charlotte @ Tulane +8.9 142.8 79% 64–78 ✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina -1.0 146.5 47% 74–80 ✗
Rice @ Memphis +15.4 148.8 92% 72–84 ✓
George Washington @ Loyola Chicago +2.0 142.0 57% 57–77 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Maryland Eastern Shore -6.5 146.8 28% 59–68 ✗
Drake @ Evansville -10.2 120.2 18% 65–61 ✓
Belmont @ Missouri State -1.3 152.6 45% 74–65 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Lipscomb +22.6 144.0 98% 60–78 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota State +10.8 176.1 84% 78–82 ✓
Penn State @ Indiana +4.6 152.4 66% 78–83 ✓
Villanova @ Seton Hall -9.9 131.1 18% 59–54 ✓
South Alabama @ Southern Miss -7.4 139.0 25% 88–82 ✓
Arkansas State @ Louisiana -11.8 144.5 14% 83–64 ✓
St. John's @ Butler -6.1 148.3 29% 76–70 ✓
Kentucky @ Oklahoma -4.5 164.2 34% 83–82 ✓
Utah @ Arizona +15.0 153.9 91% 66–83 ✓
Virginia @ Wake Forest +6.2 123.6 71% 83–75 ✗
Boston College @ Stanford +10.7 146.1 84% 60–78 ✓
Bradley @ Valparaiso -6.5 152.6 28% 76–65 ✓
DePaul @ Creighton +15.2 146.8 92% 65–75 ✓
Texas @ Arkansas +3.4 145.0 62% 81–86 ✓
BYU @ Arizona State -2.9 151.3 39% 91–81 ✓
Utah State @ Boise State +1.9 152.2 57% 65–82 ✓
Ohio State @ USC -2.5 151.8 41% 87–82 ✓
SMU @ California -6.4 157.8 28% 81–77 ✓
San Francisco @ Oregon State +2.1 141.9 57% 74–72 ✗
Bryant @ UMass Lowell -2.3 167.5 42% 79–78 ✓
UAlbany @ UMBC +2.5 162.9 59% 78–74 ✗
Samford @ VMI -9.5 153.6 20% 95–83 ✓
Robert Morris @ IU Indianapolis -6.6 150.6 27% 82–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.