Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -900 FOR +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -14.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -12.0 (-2.0) | 137.9 (+0.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -12.5 (-2.5) | 136.2 (+1.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -13.0 (-3.0) | 138.1 (-0.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -12.9 (-2.9) | 138.8 (-0.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | GMU 67 – 58 FOR |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FOR 61 – 60 GMU |
| Mar 2, 2023 | GMU 64 – 58 FOR |
| Mar 10, 2022 | FOR 54 – 49 GMU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | FOR 50 – 47 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 3-15 |
| Home | 18-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#77) | -3.7 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#56) | -0.65 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#48) | -0.77 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#27) | 0.470 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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