Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | FOR +190 GMU -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +9 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -4.9 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -5.4 (-3.6) | 131.8 (-6.8) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -3.2 (-5.8) | 132.5 (-7.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.4 (-5.6) | 130.3 (-5.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -4.0 (-5.0) | 129.0 (-4.0) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 FOR |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FOR 61 – 60 GMU |
| Mar 2, 2023 | GMU 64 – 58 FOR |
| Mar 10, 2022 | FOR 54 – 49 GMU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | FOR 50 – 47 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-7 | 17-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 68.0 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#202) | 6.2 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#279) | 2.41 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#255) | 2.91 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#320) | 0.591 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 36.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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