Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -150 FOR +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +6 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -4.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -2.7 (+3.3) | 138.9 (-16.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -1.8 (+4.2) | 137.2 (-15.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -2.3 (+3.7) | 137.9 (-15.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -2.3 (+3.7) | 140.3 (-18.3) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | GMU 67 – 58 FOR |
| Feb 27, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 FOR |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FOR 61 – 60 GMU |
| Mar 10, 2022 | FOR 54 – 49 GMU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | FOR 50 – 47 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 18-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#137) | 1.1 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#132) | 1.22 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#132) | 1.14 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#96) | 0.557 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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