Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +5 | 103 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -4.9 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (-27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -3.1 (+8.1) | 135.5 (-32.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -5.0 (+10.0) | 133.4 (-30.4) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.6 (+8.6) | 133.1 (-30.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -3.3 (+8.3) | 133.1 (-30.1) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | GMU 67 – 58 FOR |
| Feb 27, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 FOR |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FOR 61 – 60 GMU |
| Mar 2, 2023 | GMU 64 – 58 FOR |
| Feb 20, 2022 | FOR 50 – 47 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#181) | 4.1 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#182) | 0.30 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#173) | 0.46 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#194) | 0.518 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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