Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | FOR +100 GMU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +1 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -3.6 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -3.9 (+4.9) | 140.2 (-19.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -2.1 (+3.1) | 138.5 (-17.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.6 (+4.6) | 139.3 (-18.3) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -3.7 (+4.7) | 141.1 (-20.1) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | GMU 67 – 58 FOR |
| Feb 27, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 FOR |
| Mar 2, 2023 | GMU 64 – 58 FOR |
| Mar 10, 2022 | FOR 54 – 49 GMU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | FOR 50 – 47 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-11 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#182) | 5.6 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#210) | 1.25 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#216) | 1.44 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#221) | 0.570 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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