Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | FOR +200 GMU -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +3 | 97 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -2.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (-38.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -1.8 (+4.8) | 139.6 (-42.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -4.3 (+7.3) | 137.4 (-40.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -1.1 (+4.1) | 138.7 (-41.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -1.6 (+4.6) | 139.5 (-42.5) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | GMU 67 – 58 FOR |
| Feb 27, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 FOR |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FOR 61 – 60 GMU |
| Mar 2, 2023 | GMU 64 – 58 FOR |
| Mar 10, 2022 | FOR 54 – 49 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#177) | 4.8 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#202) | 0.53 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#191) | 0.68 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#201) | 0.526 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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