Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -200 KSU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -1.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.8 (+1.2) | 154.9 (+1.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -1.9 (+2.1) | 153.0 (+3.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -1.8 (+2.2) | 154.2 (+1.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -1.4 (+2.6) | 154.2 (+1.8) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | UCF 82 – 73 KSU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | KSU 77 – 52 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#84) | 8.8 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#72) | 1.34 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#77) | 1.74 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#96) | 0.537 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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