Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -135 TEX +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +5 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -3.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -3.1 (+1.9) | 146.4 (+20.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -4.3 (+0.7) | 145.6 (+21.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -4.6 (+0.4) | 147.7 (+19.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -4.7 (+0.3) | 146.8 (+20.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | ARK 105 – 85 TEX |
| Feb 6, 2025 | ARK 78 – 70 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#33) | 13.6 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#38) | 2.14 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#35) | 2.58 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#65) | 0.542 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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