Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -280 ARK +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +8 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -6.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -6.6 (-14.6) | 141.3 (+6.7) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -5.5 (-13.5) | 141.4 (+6.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -6.3 (-14.3) | 141.4 (+6.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -6.3 (-14.3) | 141.9 (+6.1) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | ARK 105 – 85 TEX |
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARK 86 – 81 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-7 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#27) | 13.0 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#32) | 1.98 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#32) | 2.67 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#65) | 0.552 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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