Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -325 TEX +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +20 | 190 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -7.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -6.6 (+13.4) | 164.4 (+25.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -7.3 (+12.7) | 165.7 (+24.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -7.1 (+12.9) | 165.5 (+24.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -7.3 (+12.7) | 165.5 (+24.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARK 86 – 81 TEX |
| Feb 6, 2025 | ARK 78 – 70 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 81.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 19.2 (#17) | 14.8 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#20) | 2.27 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#20) | 3.32 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#13) | 0.552 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 12.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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