Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UNH +260 ME -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +7 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | ME -10.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -8.5 (+1.5) | 136.5 (+2.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -7.3 (+0.3) | 135.1 (+3.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -7.6 (+0.6) | 135.5 (+3.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ME -7.9 (+0.9) | 136.5 (+2.5) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ME 61 – 58 UNH |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UNH 65 – 48 ME |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ME 71 – 46 UNH |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UNH 60 – 57 ME |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UNH 79 – 74 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNH | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 6-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-15 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -15.9 (#357) | -2.7 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#337) | -0.68 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.79 (#339) | -0.72 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#342) | 0.485 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNH | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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