Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | EMU +125 CMU -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +11 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | CMU -3.2 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -1.7 (+12.7) | 146.1 (+10.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -3.4 (+14.4) | 144.5 (+12.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -0.8 (+11.8) | 145.9 (+11.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -1.9 (+12.9) | 147.3 (+9.7) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | EMU 66 – 54 CMU |
| Jan 28, 2026 | CMU 100 – 65 EMU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | CMU 82 – 63 EMU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CMU 65 – 62 EMU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | CMU 80 – 64 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#302) | -2.1 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#229) | -0.86 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#251) | -0.90 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#237) | 0.477 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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