Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | CAM +155 UNCW -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +19 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -0.5 (-18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -1.5 (-17.5) | 137.8 (+1.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAM -0.1 (-19.1) | 140.7 (-1.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -0.2 (-18.8) | 141.9 (-2.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAM -0.3 (-19.3) | 140.1 (-1.1) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | CAM 85 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNCW 73 – 68 CAM |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UNCW 78 – 75 CAM |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UNCW 77 – 69 CAM |
| Feb 27, 2024 | CAM 105 – 100 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAM | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-10 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#180) | 2.4 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#234) | 0.76 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#211) | 0.69 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#251) | 0.548 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAM | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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