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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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81–36 on winners spread MAE 8.5 117 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Xavier @ Seton Hall	+0.3	144.3	51%	82–60	✗
Siena @ Rider	+2.8	137.8	60%	66–69	✓
Fairfield @ Niagara	+2.7	122.5	60%	68–76	✓
Iona @ Mount St. Mary's	-11.1	134.4	16%	80–68	✓
Marist @ Manhattan	+5.0	132.4	68%	81–58	✗
Saint Peter's @ Canisius	+6.6	132.8	73%	53–66	✓
Richmond @ VCU	+9.9	130.5	82%	58–73	✓
Marshall @ Old Dominion	-3.8	147.9	37%	67–71	✗
App State @ Georgia Southern	+1.9	126.8	57%	64–73	✓
Bellarmine @ North Florida	+4.6	142.5	66%	67–79	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville	+0.8	130.6	53%	56–52	✗
Queens University @ Liberty	+15.6	145.8	92%	53–73	✓
Austin Peay @ Florida Gulf Coast	+12.0	132.6	86%	71–89	✓
Lipscomb @ Stetson	+4.7	150.3	67%	98–91	✗
Jacksonville State @ North Alabama	+4.0	143.9	64%	92–83	✗
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe	+4.4	128.0	66%	64–61	✗
Coastal Carolina @ Troy	+12.7	144.7	88%	74–95	✓
Southern Miss @ Texas State	-4.4	133.4	35%	79–69	✓
Georgia State @ James Madison	+16.1	140.7	93%	69–90	✓
Kennesaw State @ Central Arkansas	-9.5	158.5	19%	72–56	✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State	+7.1	143.4	74%	71–84	✓
Seattle U @ Grand Canyon	+5.0	138.2	68%	65–54	✗
South Alabama @ Louisiana	+3.6	145.5	63%	64–74	✓
Air Force @ UNLV	+8.9	139.8	79%	53–54	✓
Nevada @ Fresno State	-6.3	125.3	28%	60–56	✓
UConn @ St. John's	-9.5	153.0	19%	95–86	✓
Creighton @ Villanova	-3.8	135.3	37%	67–79	✗
Oklahoma @ Iowa State	+7.9	124.7	76%	61–50	✗
TCU @ Texas Tech	+0.8	142.3	53%	83–82	✗
Clemson @ NC State	+7.4	148.4	75%	96–71	✗
Michigan State @ Iowa	+3.1	147.6	61%	106–112	✓
Stony Brook @ Charleston	+22.1	141.1	98%	52–92	✓
Lehigh @ Boston University	+4.9	138.7	67%	56–59	✓
Missouri @ Georgia	-3.4	155.2	38%	85–63	✓
Ohio @ Miami (OH)	-6.2	153.5	29%	68–85	✗
Merrimack @ Long Island University	-7.5	127.6	25%	80–59	✓
Sacred Heart @ Central Connecticut	+3.0	141.0	61%	69–67	✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+8.5	146.1	78%	69–86	✓
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy	+3.0	164.5	61%	82–71	✗
Arkansas @ Alabama	+11.2	153.1	85%	83–86	✓
Arizona State @ Arizona	+11.9	154.3	86%	89–88	✗
Texas @ Baylor	+1.7	152.7	56%	72–81	✓
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State	+1.4	139.5	55%	73–68	✗
Lafayette @ Bucknell	+1.2	123.8	54%	65–75	✓
Army @ Holy Cross	-3.0	144.4	39%	80–65	✓
Louisville @ Georgia Tech	+8.9	135.3	79%	67–83	✓
Maine @ Binghamton	+1.7	138.1	56%	71–67	✗
Princeton @ Harvard	+1.2	137.1	54%	58–56	✗
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania	+11.8	144.9	86%	79–89	✓
Brown @ Columbia	-8.1	137.5	23%	84–73	✓
UTEP @ Florida Atlantic	+16.5	138.9	93%	49–75	✓
High Point @ Winthrop	+7.0	158.3	74%	78–84	✓
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate	-1.9	129.4	43%	69–75	✗
Campbell @ Radford	+6.9	130.9	74%	65–67	✓
Furman @ Samford	+1.2	154.6	54%	93–79	✗
The Citadel @ Mercer	+8.0	135.0	77%	50–72	✓
Buffalo @ Toledo	+10.8	169.0	84%	71–101	✓
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan	-1.4	135.2	45%	84–80	✓
Western Illinois @ North Dakota State	+7.5	144.2	75%	69–71	✓
St. Thomas @ North Dakota	-2.4	146.0	41%	74–82	✗
Hampton @ North Carolina A&T	+7.6	150.5	76%	72–73	✓
Monmouth @ William & Mary	+8.7	135.6	79%	62–74	✓
Northeastern @ Hofstra	+16.8	138.3	94%	52–84	✓
Rhode Island @ Fordham	+9.0	136.9	79%	71–74	✓
Utah Tech @ UT Arlington	-0.7	140.6	47%	69–71	✗
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State	-5.5	151.3	31%	69–65	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland	-1.8	135.3	43%	78–69	✓
Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado	+3.9	152.7	64%	85–82	✗
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State	+2.0	124.1	57%	62–69	✓
Minnesota @ Nebraska	+11.5	130.5	85%	67–78	✓
Ball State @ Eastern Michigan	-6.8	154.5	27%	68–75	✗
UT Martin @ Morehead State	+3.6	143.0	63%	58–72	✓
West Virginia @ Kansas	+7.6	150.7	76%	74–76	✓
Florida State @ Miami	+18.0	156.8	95%	85–84	✗
Southern @ Bethune-Cookman	-6.9	147.6	27%	53–60	✗
Delaware State @ Morgan State	+10.2	138.6	82%	78–83	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Coppin State	-2.8	151.2	40%	78–57	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee	+5.6	142.3	69%	49–63	✓
Vermont @ Bryant	-0.1	152.5	50%	70–66	✓
Colgate @ Navy	-0.4	143.8	48%	64–60	✓
Rice @ Charlotte	+7.9	138.8	76%	54–70	✓
Houston Christian @ Nicholls	+13.6	162.7	89%	64–68	✓
Auburn @ Kentucky	+2.9	140.2	60%	54–86	✓
Presbyterian @ Charleston Southern	+6.1	137.1	71%	59–85	✓
VMI @ Western Carolina	+12.1	146.1	86%	66–85	✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State	-4.3	129.1	35%	62–63	✗
Wagner @ Saint Francis	+1.5	133.6	55%	68–58	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield	-6.2	123.1	29%	70–66	✓
Howard @ North Carolina Central	+8.4	144.1	78%	60–68	✓
Grambling @ Florida A&M	-8.6	121.4	22%	69–55	✓
Norfolk State @ South Carolina State	-7.1	156.3	26%	88–76	✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana	+10.1	149.4	82%	75–78	✓
UNC Asheville @ Longwood	+4.8	138.2	67%	76–66	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville	+5.6	153.3	70%	78–93	✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State	+3.4	155.8	62%	93–81	✗
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois	-0.2	140.9	49%	75–66	✓
Little Rock @ Lindenwood	+1.7	150.3	56%	96–97	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State	+3.6	136.5	63%	75–71	✗
American University @ Loyola Maryland	-0.8	127.5	47%	77–83	✗
Washington State @ California	-10.1	121.9	18%	63–57	✓
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell	+11.0	135.2	84%	55–92	✓
East Texas A&M @ Incarnate Word	-0.8	138.3	47%	75–79	✗
Kent State @ Bowling Green	-11.1	144.7	16%	79–69	✓
Omaha @ Denver	+5.8	151.0	70%	61–72	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay	-10.9	135.0	16%	78–61	✓
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh	+7.7	144.1	76%	82–99	✓
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+4.7	148.2	66%	75–83	✓
Southern Utah @ Sam Houston	+8.0	145.0	77%	57–64	✓
Virginia @ North Carolina	+1.9	134.1	57%	63–71	✓
South Carolina @ Tennessee	+25.2	125.8	99%	45–85	✓
Florida @ Vanderbilt	-0.8	142.9	47%	72–88	✗
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Louis	+12.9	145.5	88%	62–81	✓
La Salle @ George Washington	+4.8	155.1	67%	85–92	✓
George Mason @ Dayton	+10.4	124.7	83%	74–69	✗
UC Davis @ Cal Poly	-6.3	133.0	28%	58–52	✓
Portland State @ Montana State	+11.1	143.7	84%	78–91	✓
Texas Southern @ Jackson State	+3.3	144.8	62%	69–71	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.