Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–19 on winners spread MAE 8.5 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Memphis @ Wichita State -3.9 145.6 36% 83–78 ✓
UTSA @ Florida Atlantic +23.2 147.6 98% 66–106 ✓
UTEP @ Florida International +2.1 136.3 57% 87–82 ✗
North Texas @ Charlotte -1.5 108.2 45% 49–55 ✗
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb +1.9 127.2 57% 75–63 ✗
Stonehill @ Wagner +4.1 123.9 64% 44–54 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Sacred Heart +8.6 135.6 78% 70–63 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis +1.6 165.2 56% 72–82 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Merrimack +3.9 120.0 64% 54–70 ✓
Wright State @ Oakland -2.8 162.0 40% 68–75 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy +3.0 139.5 61% 67–64 ✗
Elon @ William & Mary +3.1 136.7 61% 60–73 ✓
Towson @ Charleston +10.5 147.1 83% 75–83 ✓
Delaware @ North Carolina A&T -1.1 146.6 46% 73–71 ✓
Monmouth @ Hampton +6.2 140.0 71% 81–86 ✓
Stony Brook @ UNC Wilmington +12.9 124.6 88% 69–76 ✓
Northeastern @ Drexel +9.1 129.0 80% 48–75 ✓
Rice @ UAB +13.6 167.6 89% 57–85 ✓
Utah Tech @ UT Rio Grande Valley -0.8 159.7 47% 88–81 ✓
California Baptist @ Sam Houston +10.0 124.2 82% 45–56 ✓
Robert Morris @ IU Indianapolis -10.1 133.2 18% 75–81 ✗
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans -5.7 154.3 30% 82–88 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Lamar -4.5 148.7 34% 83–60 ✓
McNeese @ Houston Christian +1.4 155.8 55% 80–85 ✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State -3.9 137.0 36% 58–77 ✗
St. Thomas @ North Dakota State +2.0 146.7 57% 64–73 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota -16.1 153.4 7% 82–70 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +9.2 130.5 80% 50–73 ✓
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville +10.5 153.2 83% 79–74 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +11.5 144.1 85% 84–80 ✗
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word -6.4 141.7 28% 71–66 ✓
Michigan @ Rutgers +8.1 132.7 77% 58–45 ✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington -5.3 146.5 31% 86–76 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southern Indiana +6.2 153.2 71% 82–79 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Milwaukee +4.2 147.4 65% 94–96 ✓
Northwestern @ Illinois +5.0 133.6 67% 62–66 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +2.2 145.1 58% 66–76 ✓
USC @ Colorado +3.5 140.8 62% 84–65 ✗
Washington @ California -6.4 129.9 28% 65–56 ✓
Tennessee State @ UT Martin +5.8 157.1 70% 88–82 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood -2.6 147.2 41% 102–105 ✗
Sacramento State @ Montana State +9.9 127.8 82% 56–60 ✓
Idaho @ Idaho State +5.1 144.1 68% 55–65 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State -1.5 136.6 45% 89–82 ✓
Cleveland State @ Green Bay -13.8 130.2 11% 76–65 ✓
Pacific @ Saint Mary's +20.4 137.3 97% 52–83 ✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara +10.9 162.0 84% 82–91 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Santa Barbara +6.0 149.6 71% 73–78 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Northridge +1.3 121.3 55% 68–75 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Irvine +15.7 140.2 92% 99–91 ✗
UCLA @ Utah -5.4 128.5 31% 78–71 ✓
San Diego @ Gonzaga +21.5 170.4 97% 72–97 ✓
Washington State @ Stanford +0.5 132.7 52% 67–63 ✗
Portland @ San Francisco +8.3 155.1 77% 89–92 ✓
UC Riverside @ Hawai'i +4.7 132.3 67% 54–52 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.