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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–18 on winners spread MAE 8.6 61 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State -2.3 136.6 42% 74–78 ✗
SMU @ South Florida +6.4 148.0 72% 67–71 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State +0.1 138.5 50% 55–50 ✗
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +10.2 151.7 82% 58–66 ✓
NJIT @ UAlbany +0.7 141.3 53% 68–82 ✓
Cornell @ Yale +10.5 156.0 83% 58–76 ✓
UTSA @ Florida International +9.8 149.7 81% 95–91 ✗
LSU New Orleans @ Lamar +1.6 147.8 56% 84–79 ✗
Boise State @ San José State -4.4 129.1 34% 68–74 ✗
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian -4.0 149.5 36% 66–62 ✓
Chattanooga @ Wofford +0.7 151.6 52% 74–86 ✓
Western Michigan @ Akron +15.9 137.1 93% 64–81 ✓
Portland @ Pacific +2.0 163.1 57% 77–81 ✓
Youngstown State @ IU Indianapolis -17.2 154.1 6% 93–79 ✓
Towson @ UNC Wilmington +1.6 132.1 56% 57–53 ✗
Delaware @ Elon -2.2 138.3 42% 70–54 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Long Beach State +14.6 147.5 91% 64–71 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +7.4 137.4 75% 79–71 ✗
DePaul @ Marquette +18.5 157.1 95% 84–90 ✓
Houston @ East Carolina -19.7 127.7 4% 76–57 ✓
USC @ Utah +2.9 138.9 60% 62–49 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Duke +7.1 138.7 74% 65–81 ✓
UAB @ Western Kentucky -5.3 155.5 31% 72–60 ✓
Tarleton State @ UT Rio Grande Valley -1.7 148.2 44% 95–99 ✗
Kansas City @ South Dakota +0.4 132.1 52% 48–82 ✓
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee +0.2 146.2 51% 72–81 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State -4.4 146.0 35% 63–71 ✗
LSU @ Ole Miss +5.3 132.3 69% 69–82 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana +6.6 129.1 72% 72–74 ✓
Idaho @ Weber State +7.8 135.3 76% 53–67 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +1.9 141.3 57% 68–77 ✓
San Diego State @ New Mexico +0.3 150.6 51% 73–71 ✗
Oregon @ Oregon State -8.1 126.7 23% 69–67 ✓
Santa Clara @ San Diego -4.4 162.1 34% 81–63 ✓
San Francisco @ BYU +6.3 146.3 72% 61–87 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego -4.8 135.5 33% 87–71 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i +1.2 131.9 54% 67–72 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pepperdine -0.4 158.6 49% 75–67 ✓
Northwestern @ Maryland +5.4 126.6 69% 59–75 ✓
Illinois @ Ohio State +0.6 146.3 52% 60–72 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ St. Bonaventure +4.5 137.1 66% 76–89 ✓
Providence @ Georgetown -9.5 152.6 19% 88–68 ✓
Belmont @ Northern Iowa -1.7 147.2 44% 83–75 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Niagara +7.3 118.5 75% 66–65 ✗
Siena @ Iona +12.0 139.1 86% 60–93 ✓
Fairfield @ Canisius +2.5 137.2 59% 51–64 ✓
Cincinnati @ Memphis +5.9 154.8 70% 73–76 ✓
Southern Illinois @ UIC -6.2 128.4 29% 68–65 ✓
Missouri State @ Indiana State +8.8 138.5 79% 66–62 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Rider +8.9 133.7 79% 63–58 ✗
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac +13.2 144.5 88% 72–70 ✗
Wisconsin @ Michigan +5.1 129.7 68% 79–87 ✓
Davidson @ Duquesne +7.0 143.0 74% 71–67 ✗
Wichita State @ Tulane +7.0 150.9 74% 83–76 ✗
Evansville @ Illinois State +9.8 136.3 81% 53–72 ✓
UCLA @ Colorado -6.8 132.1 27% 60–56 ✓
Valparaiso @ Murray State +6.1 146.0 71% 76–77 ✓
Drake @ Bradley +4.2 132.4 65% 61–73 ✓
UCF @ Tulsa -14.5 140.2 9% 68–49 ✓
Washington @ Stanford +4.7 140.2 66% 69–81 ✓
Rutgers @ Penn State +0.5 131.0 52% 59–56 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.