Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -275 VAL +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +1 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -6.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -5.7 (-4.7) | 148.4 (+4.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -7.6 (-6.6) | 144.3 (+8.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -5.5 (-4.5) | 146.4 (+6.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -5.2 (-4.2) | 146.7 (+6.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MUR 92 – 79 VAL |
| Dec 21, 2025 | MUR 85 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MUR 74 – 56 VAL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MUR 58 – 47 VAL |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MUR 80 – 68 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#229) | -6.4 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#160) | -1.08 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#178) | -1.32 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#178) | 0.442 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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