Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -275 SMC +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -3.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -4.7 (+4.3) | 143.3 (+1.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -4.0 (+5.0) | 143.0 (+2.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -3.4 (+5.6) | 144.9 (+0.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -3.8 (+5.2) | 146.0 (-1.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 14-2 |
| Home | 15-1 | 16-2 |
| Away | 7-2 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 60.0 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#10) | 15.9 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#6) | 2.50 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.77 (#5) | 3.22 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#3) | 0.628 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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